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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
3/30/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan45%
×Draw31%
Qashqai Shiraz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.15
Qashqai Shiraz
0.74

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 55% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
76%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Qashqai Shiraz
69%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
55%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
20%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
68%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
32%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
11%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
52%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
17%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
66%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
45%
level
31%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
24%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Hamedan 0–0 Qashqai Shiraz

Shahrdari Hamedan and Qashqai Shiraz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.