Shahrdari Hamedan 2–1 Machine Sazi FC

Shahrdari Hamedan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Machine Sazi FC

2/21/2022

Azadegan League · Round 18Ghods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan68%

×Draw20%

Machine Sazi FC11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari HamedanExpected goals in this matchMachine Sazi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.66

Shahrdari Hamedan

1.98

Machine Sazi FC

0.66

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 200% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

0.97

creates per match

0.67

0.65

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

Machine Sazi FC

0.67

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.65

Machine Sazi FC

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Machine Sazi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw

89%

Shahrdari Hamedan or Machine Sazi FC

80%

Draw or Machine Sazi FC

32%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

43%

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

86%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

59%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

31%

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

48%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

14%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

86%

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

68%

level

20%

Machine Sazi FC scores more

11%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff