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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
A. Sobhani 16'
A. Zendehrooh 56', 20'
5/4/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan35%
×Draw34%
Fajr Sepasi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.90
Fajr Sepasi
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Fajr Sepasi
1.04

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Fajr Sepasi
0.82

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
68%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Fajr Sepasi
66%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
65%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
12%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
23%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
57%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
21%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
52%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
35%
level
34%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
32%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Sobhani
20'
A. Zendehrooh
56'
A. Zendehrooh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Hamedan 1–2 Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahrdari Hamedan 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Sobhani (16'), A. Zendehrooh (20', 56').

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.