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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
3 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
10/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan54%
×Draw28%
Chooka Talesh17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.35
Chooka Talesh
0.63

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 114% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
83%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Chooka Talesh
72%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
46%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
27%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
74%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
39%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
15%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
47%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
13%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
76%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
54%
level
28%
Chooka Talesh scores more
17%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Hamedan 3–0 Chooka Talesh

Shahrdari Hamedan beat Chooka Talesh 3-0 in Azadegan League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.