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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
3/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan46%
×Draw30%
Arman Gohar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
1.21
Arman Gohar
0.78

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 55% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
76%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Arman Gohar
70%
Draw or Arman Gohar
54%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
21%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
70%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
34%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
12%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
54%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
18%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
66%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
46%
level
30%
Arman Gohar scores more
24%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Hamedan 0–2 Arman Gohar

Arman Gohar beat Shahrdari Hamedan 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.