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Shahrdari Astara vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
1/23/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shahrdari Astara27%
×Draw32%
Paykan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
0.79
Paykan
1.06

Paykan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
59%
Shahrdari Astara or Paykan
68%
Draw or Paykan
73%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
8%
Paykan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
55%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
19%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
5%
Paykan 1+ goals
65%
Paykan 2+ goals
29%
Paykan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
39%
Paykan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Paykan attack 1.18 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
27%
level
32%
Paykan scores more
41%

Paykan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Paykan

Paykan beat Shahrdari Astara 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 23, 2025.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.