Shahrdari Astara 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Shahrdari Astara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pars Jonoubi JAM

2/21/2024

Azadegan League · Round 20Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shahrdari Astara37%

×Draw31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchPars Jonoubi JAM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.92

Shahrdari Astara

1.02

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.92

Shahrdari Astara creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 100 away

0.92

creates per match

0.89

0.95

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.89

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

68%

Shahrdari Astara or Pars Jonoubi JAM

69%

Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM

63%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

14%

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

64%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

27%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

8%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

60%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

23%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

54%

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

37%

level

31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

32%

Shahrdari Astara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff