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Shahrdari Astara vs Omid Vahdat — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
CANC
10:30
Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
12/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shahrdari Astara86%
×Draw10%
Omid Vahdat4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
2.96
Omid Vahdat
0.47

Shahrdari Astara creates 530% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Omid Vahdat
0.00

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Omid Vahdat
5.00

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Omid Vahdat+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Omid Vahdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
96%
Shahrdari Astara or Omid Vahdat
90%
Draw or Omid Vahdat
14%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
68%
Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
95%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
79%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
55%
Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
37%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
8%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
96%
Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Omid Vahdat away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Omid Vahdat defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
86%
level
10%
Omid Vahdat scores more
4%

Shahrdari Astara at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shahrdari Astara vs Omid Vahdat — Match Preview

Shahrdari Astara face Omid Vahdat on December 5, 2022 in this Azadegan League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shahrdari Astara host Omid Vahdat at Vahdat Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.