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Shahrdari Astara vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 1
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
M. M. Zeynali 90+3'
5/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Shahrdari Astara43%
×Draw33%
Navad Urmia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.02
Navad Urmia
0.67

Shahrdari Astara creates 52% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 47 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Navad Urmia
1.11

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
76%
Shahrdari Astara or Navad Urmia
67%
Draw or Navad Urmia
57%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
17%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
64%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
27%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
49%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
15%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
65%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Navad Urmia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
43%
level
33%
Navad Urmia scores more
24%

Shahrdari Astara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'
M. M. Zeynali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Navad Urmia

Navad Urmia beat Shahrdari Astara 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 8, 2021.

Goals: M. M. Zeynali (90+3').

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.