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Shahrdari Astara vs Mes Soongoun — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
2/26/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shahrdari Astara44%
×Draw32%
Mes Soongoun24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.08
Mes Soongoun
0.71

Shahrdari Astara creates 52% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Mes Soongoun
0.47

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Mes Soongoun
1.24

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Mes Soongoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
76%
Shahrdari Astara or Mes Soongoun
68%
Draw or Mes Soongoun
56%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
18%
Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
66%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
29%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
10%
Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
51%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
16%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
65%
Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Mes Soongoun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mes Soongoun attack 0.47 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
44%
level
32%
Mes Soongoun scores more
24%

Shahrdari Astara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 1–1 Mes Soongoun

Shahrdari Astara and Mes Soongoun drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.