Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Astara vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
2/13/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shahrdari Astara53%
×Draw28%
Khalij Fars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.38
Khalij Fars
0.71

Shahrdari Astara creates 94% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 25 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
81%
Shahrdari Astara or Khalij Fars
72%
Draw or Khalij Fars
47%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
26%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
75%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
40%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
16%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
51%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
16%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
73%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.38

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
53%
level
28%
Khalij Fars scores more
19%

Shahrdari Astara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Khalij Fars

Shahrdari Astara and Khalij Fars drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on February 13, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.