Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Astara vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
4/5/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shahrdari Astara31%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
0.89
Fajr Sepasi
0.99

Fajr Sepasi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 98 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
63%
Shahrdari Astara or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
69%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
11%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
22%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
63%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
26%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
46%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
31%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
37%

Fajr Sepasi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahrdari Astara 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.