Shahrdari Astara 0–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Shahrdari Astara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal Mollasani

5/2/2024

Azadegan League · Round 29Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shahrdari Astara40%

×Draw31%

Esteghlal Mollasani29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.89

Shahrdari Astara

1.11

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.89

Shahrdari Astara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

0.92

creates per match

0.82

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

71%

Shahrdari Astara or Esteghlal Mollasani

69%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

60%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

17%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

67%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

30%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

10%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

59%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

22%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

58%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

40%

level

31%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

29%

Shahrdari Astara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff