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Shahrdari Astara vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
11/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Shahrdari Astara50%
×Draw29%
Damash Gilanian21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.28
Damash Gilanian
0.72

Shahrdari Astara creates 78% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 65 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
79%
Shahrdari Astara or Damash Gilanian
71%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
50%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
23%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
72%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
37%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
14%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
51%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
16%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
70%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
50%
level
29%
Damash Gilanian scores more
21%

Shahrdari Astara at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Damash Gilanian

Damash Gilanian beat Shahrdari Astara 3-2 in Azadegan League on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.