Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Astara vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 0
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
11/6/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shahrdari Astara33%
×Draw30%
Baderan Tehran37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.01
Baderan Tehran
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
63%
Shahrdari Astara or Baderan Tehran
70%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
67%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
13%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
64%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
27%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
8%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
66%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
29%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
47%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
33%
level
30%
Baderan Tehran scores more
37%

Baderan Tehran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 0–0 Baderan Tehran

Shahrdari Astara and Baderan Tehran drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.