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Shahrdari Astara vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
3/17/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shahrdari Astara42%
×Draw30%
Arman Gohar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.18
Arman Gohar
0.93

Shahrdari Astara creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
71%
Shahrdari Astara or Arman Gohar
70%
Draw or Arman Gohar
58%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
18%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
69%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
33%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
12%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
61%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
24%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
59%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
42%
level
30%
Arman Gohar scores more
29%

Shahrdari Astara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 2–0 Arman Gohar

Shahrdari Astara beat Arman Gohar 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.