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Shahin Bushehr vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
4/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shahin Bushehr42%
×Draw33%
Vista Turbine24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.01
Vista Turbine
0.68

Shahin Bushehr creates 49% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
76%
Shahin Bushehr or Vista Turbine
67%
Draw or Vista Turbine
58%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
17%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
64%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
27%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
8%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
49%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
15%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
64%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
42%
level
33%
Vista Turbine scores more
24%

Shahin Bushehr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 0–1 Vista Turbine

Vista Turbine beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.