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Shahin Bushehr vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 0
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
10/31/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr42%
×Draw31%
Rayka Babol27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.11
Rayka Babol
0.84

Shahin Bushehr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Rayka Babol
0.80

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Rayka Babol
1.37

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
73%
Shahin Bushehr or Rayka Babol
69%
Draw or Rayka Babol
58%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
17%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
67%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
30%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
10%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
57%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
21%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
60%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
42%
level
31%
Rayka Babol scores more
27%

Shahin Bushehr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 0–0 Rayka Babol

Shahin Bushehr and Rayka Babol drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.