Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahin Bushehr vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 2
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
10/17/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Shahin Bushehr36%
×Draw31%
Qashqai Shiraz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.01
Qashqai Shiraz
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.76
Qashqai Shiraz
0.87

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.00
Qashqai Shiraz
1.26

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
68%
Shahin Bushehr or Qashqai Shiraz
69%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
64%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
14%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
64%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
27%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
8%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
61%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
24%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
53%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.76 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.01

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.87 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
36%
level
31%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
32%

Shahin Bushehr at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Shahin Bushehr 2-1 in Azadegan League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.