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Shahin Bushehr vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
11/29/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 12Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr32%
×Draw29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.03
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.15

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.50

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.13

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
62%
Shahin Bushehr or Pars Jonoubi JAM
71%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
68%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
12%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
64%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
28%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
68%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
32%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
46%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.50 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
32%
level
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
38%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Shahin Bushehr and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 29, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.