Pars Jonoubi JAM 2–0 Shahin Bushehr: Result & Stats

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

2 – 0

Shahin Bushehr

12/22/2020

Azadegan League · Round 6Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM45%

×Draw31%

Shahin Bushehr24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.73

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.12

Shahin Bushehr

0.73

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 53% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 48 away

1.28

creates per match

0.69

0.77

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.28

Shahin Bushehr

0.69

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.77

Shahin Bushehr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

76%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Shahin Bushehr

69%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

55%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

19%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

67%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

10%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

52%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

17%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

65%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

45%

level

31%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

24%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff