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Shahin Bushehr vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
4/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr31%
×Draw35%
Mes Kerman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
0.77
Mes Kerman
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 116 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
66%
Shahin Bushehr or Mes Kerman
65%
Draw or Mes Kerman
69%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
10%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
54%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
56%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
20%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
47%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
31%
level
35%
Mes Kerman scores more
34%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.