Shahin Bushehr vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Shahin Bushehr38%
Machine Sazi FC35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shahin Bushehr ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches
Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26
Machine Sazi FC attack 0.61 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Shahin Bushehr at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Shahin Bushehr substitutes
Head to Head
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor Sazi
ZOB Ahan
Saipa
Foolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Pars Jonoubi JAMMachine Sazi FC
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shahin Bushehr host Machine Sazi FC on Friday, 14 February 2020 at 12:45. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Shahin Bushehr 3 – 1 Machine Sazi FC
Shahin Bushehr beat Machine Sazi FC 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 14, 2020.
Goals: M. Saremi (25'), E. Sharifat (35'), A. Maboodi (68'), H. Najafi (90+2').
The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.