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Shahin Bushehr vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
5/10/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr39%
×Draw32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.00
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.82

Shahin Bushehr creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
71%
Shahin Bushehr or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
68%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
61%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
15%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
63%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
26%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
8%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
56%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
20%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
57%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
39%
level
32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
29%

Shahin Bushehr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 2–3 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Shahin Bushehr 3-2 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.