Shahin Bushehr 1–1 Gol Gohar: Result & Stats

Shahin Bushehr

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gol Gohar

11/8/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr26%

×Draw28%

Gol Gohar46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin BushehrExpected goals in this matchGol Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.34

Shahin Bushehr

0.92

Gol Gohar

1.34

Gol Gohar creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

0.93

creates per match

0.88

1.80

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.93

Gol Gohar

0.88

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr

1.80

Gol Gohar

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Gol Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw

54%

Shahin Bushehr or Gol Gohar

72%

Draw or Gol Gohar

74%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

9%

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

60%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

23%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

7%

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

74%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

39%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

36%

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more

26%

level

28%

Gol Gohar scores more

46%

Gol Gohar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff