Shahin Bandar Ameri 0–0 Shahrdari Astara

Shahin Bandar Ameri

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

4/21/2024

Azadegan League · Round 28Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri46%

×Draw32%

Shahrdari Astara21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin Bandar AmeriExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.64

Shahin Bandar Ameri

1.10

Shahrdari Astara

0.64

Shahin Bandar Ameri creates 72% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 84 away

0.50

creates per match

0.40

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri

0.50

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri

0.88

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw

79%

Shahin Bandar Ameri or Shahrdari Astara

68%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

54%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+

20%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals

67%

Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals

30%

Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals

10%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

47%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

14%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)

69%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more

46%

level

32%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

21%

Shahin Bandar Ameri at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shahin Bandar Ameri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff