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Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
3/4/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri32%
×Draw33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.85
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.50
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.88
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw
65%
Shahin Bandar Ameri or Naft Masjed Soleyman
67%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
68%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
11%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
57%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
21%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
5%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
60%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
23%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
48%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.85

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
32%
level
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
35%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bandar Ameri 2–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Shahin Bandar Ameri beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-1 in Azadegan League on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.