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Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
5/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri24%
×Draw35%
Kheybar Khorramabad42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.64
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.96

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.50
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.88
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw
58%
Shahin Bandar Ameri or Kheybar Khorramabad
65%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
76%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
6%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
47%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
14%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
3%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
62%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
25%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
36%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
24%
level
35%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
42%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.