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Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
4/6/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri25%
×Draw34%
Fajr Sepasi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.68
Fajr Sepasi
0.96

Fajr Sepasi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 98 away

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.50
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.88
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw
59%
Shahin Bandar Ameri or Fajr Sepasi
66%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
75%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
7%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
49%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
15%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
3%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
62%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
25%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
38%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
25%
level
34%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
41%

Fajr Sepasi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bandar Ameri 0–3 Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 3-0 in Azadegan League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.