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Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
3/16/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri44%
×Draw32%
Damash Gilanian23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.07
Damash Gilanian
0.69

Shahin Bandar Ameri creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 65 away

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.50
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.88
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw
77%
Shahin Bandar Ameri or Damash Gilanian
68%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
56%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
18%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
66%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
29%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
9%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
50%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
15%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
65%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
44%
level
32%
Damash Gilanian scores more
23%

Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shahin Bandar Ameri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Damash Gilanian

Shahin Bandar Ameri beat Damash Gilanian 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.