Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahin Bandar Ameri vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
6/5/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri20%
×Draw34%
Chadormalu SC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.55
Chadormalu SC
1.02

Chadormalu SC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.50
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.88
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bandar Ameri ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–121%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw
54%
Shahin Bandar Ameri or Chadormalu SC
66%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
80%

Winning margin

Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
5%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
42%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
11%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
2%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
64%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
27%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
30%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 0.50 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.55

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
20%
level
34%
Chadormalu SC scores more
46%

Chadormalu SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bandar Ameri 0–0 Chadormalu SC

Shahin Bandar Ameri and Chadormalu SC drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.