Shaftesbury Town 3–3 Frome Town: Result & Stats

Shaftesbury Town

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Frome Town

12/27/2025

League #56 · Southern South - 24Cockrams Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shaftesbury Town42%

×Draw20%

Frome Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaftesbury TownExpected goals in this matchFrome Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

2.17

Shaftesbury Town

2.27

Frome Town

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

3.25

creates per match

2.35

2.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shaftesbury Town

3.25

Frome Town

2.35

allows per match

Shaftesbury Town

2.00

Frome Town

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaftesbury Town+0.00on par

Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaftesbury Town ↓

Frome Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Shaftesbury Town or draw

62%

Shaftesbury Town or Frome Town

80%

Draw or Frome Town

58%

Winning margin

Shaftesbury Town wins by 2+

24%

Frome Town wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shaftesbury Town 1+ goals

90%

Shaftesbury Town 2+ goals

66%

Shaftesbury Town 3+ goals

39%

Frome Town 1+ goals

89%

Frome Town 2+ goals

64%

Frome Town 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Shaftesbury Town (draw refunded)

52%

Frome Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaftesbury Town at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaftesbury Town attack 3.25 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Shaftesbury Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shaftesbury Town scores more

42%

level

20%

Frome Town scores more

38%

Shaftesbury Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shaftesbury Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff