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Shaftesbury Town vs Falmouth Town — League #56 2026

Shaftesbury Town
Shaftesbury Town
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Falmouth Town
Falmouth Town
4/3/2026League #56League #56 · Southern South - 38Cockrams Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shaftesbury Town66%
×Draw16%
Falmouth Town18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaftesbury Town
3.04
Falmouth Town
1.59

Shaftesbury Town creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shaftesbury Town
3.25
Falmouth Town
1.18

allows per match

Shaftesbury Town
2.00
Falmouth Town
2.82

finishing

Shaftesbury Town+0.00on par
Falmouth Town+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaftesbury Town ↓

Falmouth Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Shaftesbury Town or draw
82%
Shaftesbury Town or Falmouth Town
84%
Draw or Falmouth Town
34%

Winning margin

Shaftesbury Town wins by 2+
46%
Falmouth Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shaftesbury Town 1+ goals
95%
Shaftesbury Town 2+ goals
80%
Shaftesbury Town 3+ goals
57%
Falmouth Town 1+ goals
80%
Falmouth Town 2+ goals
47%
Falmouth Town 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shaftesbury Town (draw refunded)
78%
Falmouth Town (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaftesbury Town at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Falmouth Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaftesbury Town attack 3.25 + Falmouth Town defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 3.04

Falmouth Town attack 1.18 + Shaftesbury Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shaftesbury Town scores more
66%
level
16%
Falmouth Town scores more
18%

Shaftesbury Town at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shaftesbury Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Shaftesbury Town 4–0 Falmouth Town

Shaftesbury Town beat Falmouth Town 4-0 in League #56 on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Cockrams Ground in Shaftesbury, Dorset.