Shabana 2–0 Vihiga United FC: Result & Stats

Shabana

FT

2 – 0

Vihiga United FC

3/2/2022

Super League · Round 14Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Shabana62%

×Draw23%

Vihiga United FC15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShabanaExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.70

Shabana

1.71

Vihiga United FC

0.70

Shabana creates 144% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

1.63

creates per match

0.80

0.60

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Shabana

1.63

Vihiga United FC

0.80

allows per match

Shabana

0.60

Vihiga United FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shabana or draw

85%

Shabana or Vihiga United FC

77%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

38%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+

35%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals

82%

Shabana 2+ goals

51%

Shabana 3+ goals

24%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

50%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

16%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)

80%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.60 · 35 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.63 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Shabana defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shabana scores more

62%

level

23%

Vihiga United FC scores more

15%

Shabana at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff