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Shabana vs Muhoroni Youth — FKF Premier League 2018

Shabana
Shabana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
1/6/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shabana39%
×Draw33%
Muhoroni Youth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabana
0.99
Muhoroni Youth
0.81

Shabana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shabana
1.16
Muhoroni Youth
0.71

allows per match

Shabana
0.92
Muhoroni Youth
0.82

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shabana or draw
71%
Shabana or Muhoroni Youth
67%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
61%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+
15%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals
63%
Shabana 2+ goals
26%
Shabana 3+ goals
8%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
56%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
19%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)
57%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.16 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Shabana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabana scores more
39%
level
33%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
29%

Shabana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Shabana 0–1 Muhoroni Youth

Muhoroni Youth beat Shabana 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium in Homa Bay.