Shabana 3–1 Kajiado: Result & Stats | Super League

Shabana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kajiado

1/25/2023

Super League · Round 1Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Shabana67%

×Draw20%

Kajiado13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShabanaExpected goals in this matchKajiado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.77

Shabana

2.07

Kajiado

0.77

Shabana creates 169% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

1.63

creates per match

0.94

0.60

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Shabana

1.63

Kajiado

0.94

allows per match

Shabana

0.60

Kajiado

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par

Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Kajiado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shabana or draw

87%

Shabana or Kajiado

80%

Draw or Kajiado

33%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+

43%

Kajiado wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals

87%

Shabana 2+ goals

61%

Shabana 3+ goals

34%

Kajiado 1+ goals

54%

Kajiado 2+ goals

18%

Kajiado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)

84%

Kajiado (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.60 · 35 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.63 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Shabana defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Shabana scores more

67%

level

20%

Kajiado scores more

13%

Shabana at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff