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Shabana vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Shabana
Shabana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gusii
Gusii
2/18/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Shabana61%
×Draw24%
Gusii15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabana
1.66
Gusii
0.66

Shabana creates 152% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

creates per match

Shabana
1.63
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Shabana
0.60
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shabana or draw
85%
Shabana or Gusii
76%
Draw or Gusii
39%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+
34%
Gusii wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals
81%
Shabana 2+ goals
49%
Shabana 3+ goals
23%
Gusii 1+ goals
48%
Gusii 2+ goals
14%
Gusii 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)
81%
Gusii (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.60 · 35 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.63 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gusii attack 0.72 + Shabana defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shabana scores more
61%
level
24%
Gusii scores more
15%

Shabana at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shabana 0 – 1 Gusii

Gusii beat Shabana 1-0 in Super League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gusii Stadium in Kisii.