Shabana 0–2 Bandari: Result & Stats

Shabana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bandari

3/3/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 21Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shabana39%

×Draw32%

Bandari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShabanaExpected goals in this matchBandari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

Shabana

1.04

Bandari

0.86

Shabana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 145 away

1.16

creates per match

0.81

0.92

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Shabana

1.16

Bandari

0.81

allows per match

Shabana

0.92

Bandari

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par

Bandari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Bandari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shabana or draw

71%

Shabana or Bandari

68%

Draw or Bandari

61%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+

15%

Bandari wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals

65%

Shabana 2+ goals

28%

Shabana 3+ goals

9%

Bandari 1+ goals

58%

Bandari 2+ goals

21%

Bandari 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)

57%

Bandari (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Bandari away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.92 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.16 + Bandari defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bandari attack 0.81 + Shabana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabana scores more

39%

level

32%

Bandari scores more

29%

Shabana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff