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Shabab El Bourj vs Sporting Beirut — Premier League 2019

Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting Beirut
Sporting Beirut
1/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shabab El Bourj59%
×Draw24%
Sporting Beirut17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab El Bourj
1.67
Sporting Beirut
0.77

Shabab El Bourj creates 117% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shabab El Bourj
1.33
Sporting Beirut
0.60

allows per match

Shabab El Bourj
0.95
Sporting Beirut
2.00

finishing

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par
Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab El Bourj ↓

Sporting Beirut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shabab El Bourj or draw
83%
Shabab El Bourj or Sporting Beirut
76%
Draw or Sporting Beirut
41%

Winning margin

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
33%
Sporting Beirut wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
81%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
50%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
23%
Sporting Beirut 1+ goals
54%
Sporting Beirut 2+ goals
18%
Sporting Beirut 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
78%
Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab El Bourj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Sporting Beirut away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.33 + Sporting Beirut defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sporting Beirut attack 0.60 + Shabab El Bourj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shabab El Bourj scores more
59%
level
24%
Sporting Beirut scores more
17%

Shabab El Bourj at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabab El Bourj vs Sporting Beirut

Shabab El Bourj beat Sporting Beirut 2-1 in Premier League on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.