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Shabab El Bourj vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
12/19/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shabab El Bourj50%
×Draw28%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab El Bourj
1.37
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.82

Shabab El Bourj creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shabab El Bourj
1.33
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.69

allows per match

Shabab El Bourj
0.95
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.41

finishing

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par
Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab El Bourj ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shabab El Bourj or draw
78%
Shabab El Bourj or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
72%
Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
50%

Winning margin

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
24%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
75%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
40%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
16%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
56%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
20%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
69%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab El Bourj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.33 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Shabab El Bourj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shabab El Bourj scores more
50%
level
28%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
22%

Shabab El Bourj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab El Bourj 2–0 Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Shabab El Bourj beat Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2-0 in Premier League on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.