Shabab Al Sahel 1–0 Tripoli SC: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Sahel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tripoli SC

10/3/2020

Premier League · Round 1Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel42%

×Draw28%

Tripoli SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al SahelExpected goals in this matchTripoli SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.02

Shabab Al Sahel

1.28

Tripoli SC

1.02

Shabab Al Sahel creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 36 away

1.43

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.43

Tripoli SC

0.92

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.12

Tripoli SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Tripoli SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw

70%

Shabab Al Sahel or Tripoli SC

72%

Draw or Tripoli SC

58%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+

19%

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals

72%

Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals

37%

Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals

14%

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

64%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

27%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)

59%

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more

42%

level

28%

Tripoli SC scores more

30%

Shabab Al Sahel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff