Shabab Al Sahel 2–0 Tadamon Sour: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Sahel

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tadamon Sour

3/3/2024

Premier League · Relegation Round - 5Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel48%

×Draw27%

Tadamon Sour25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al SahelExpected goals in this matchTadamon Sour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.95

Shabab Al Sahel

1.43

Tadamon Sour

0.95

Shabab Al Sahel creates 51% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

1.12

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.43

Tadamon Sour

0.78

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.12

Tadamon Sour

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Tadamon Sour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw

75%

Shabab Al Sahel or Tadamon Sour

73%

Draw or Tadamon Sour

52%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+

24%

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals

76%

Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals

42%

Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals

17%

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals

61%

Tadamon Sour 2+ goals

25%

Tadamon Sour 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)

66%

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more

48%

level

27%

Tadamon Sour scores more

25%

Shabab Al Sahel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff