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Shabab Al Sahel vs Shabab El Bourj — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
4/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 7Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel52%
×Draw23%
Shabab El Bourj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Sahel
1.78
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

Shabab Al Sahel creates 58% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.43
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.12
Shabab El Bourj
2.13

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par
Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Shabab El Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw
76%
Shabab Al Sahel or Shabab El Bourj
77%
Draw or Shabab El Bourj
48%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
29%
Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
83%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
53%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
26%
Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
68%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
31%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
68%
Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more
52%
level
23%
Shabab El Bourj scores more
24%

Shabab Al Sahel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al Sahel 1–2 Shabab El Bourj

Shabab El Bourj beat Shabab Al Sahel 2-1 in Premier League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.