Shabab Al Sahel 1–0 Shabab Al Ghazieh

Shabab Al Sahel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shabab Al Ghazieh

3/3/2025

Premier League · Round 8Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel53%

×Draw25%

Shabab Al Ghazieh22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al SahelExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ghazieh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.95

Shabab Al Sahel

1.64

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.95

Shabab Al Sahel creates 73% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

1.12

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.43

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.78

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.12

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw

78%

Shabab Al Sahel or Shabab Al Ghazieh

75%

Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh

47%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+

29%

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals

81%

Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals

49%

Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals

23%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

61%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

25%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)

71%

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more

53%

level

25%

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

22%

Shabab Al Sahel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff