Shabab Al Sahel 1–1 Reyady Abaseya: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Sahel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reyady Abaseya

Said Saad 18'

S. Taufiq 65'

5/25/2025

Premier League · Relegation Round - 8Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel43%

×Draw27%

Reyady Abaseya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al SahelExpected goals in this matchReyady Abaseya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Shabab Al Sahel

1.33

Reyady Abaseya

1.06

Shabab Al Sahel creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.43

Reyady Abaseya

1.00

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel

1.12

Reyady Abaseya

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Reyady Abaseya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Reyady Abaseya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw

70%

Shabab Al Sahel or Reyady Abaseya

73%

Draw or Reyady Abaseya

57%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+

20%

Reyady Abaseya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals

74%

Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals

38%

Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals

15%

Reyady Abaseya 1+ goals

65%

Reyady Abaseya 2+ goals

29%

Reyady Abaseya 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)

59%

Reyady Abaseya (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Reyady Abaseya away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Reyady Abaseya defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Reyady Abaseya attack 1.00 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more

43%

level

27%

Reyady Abaseya scores more

30%

Shabab Al Sahel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Said Saad

41'

S. Farhat

41'

S. Farhat

65'

S. Taufiq

Shabab

Reyady

⚽

⚽

Manager: Said Iskandar

Manager: Mohammad Zoher

Premier League: Shabab Al Sahel 1–1 Reyady Abaseya

Shabab Al Sahel and Reyady Abaseya drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Said Saad (18'), S. Taufiq (65').

The match was played at Al Safa SC Stadium in Beirut.

Shabab Al Sahel vs Reyady Abaseya — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Shabab Al Sahel 1–1 Reyady Abaseya