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Shabab Al Sahel vs Racing — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing
Racing
4/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 2Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel57%
×Draw23%
Racing20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Sahel
1.81
Racing
0.96

Shabab Al Sahel creates 89% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.43
Racing
0.79

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.12
Racing
2.18

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par
Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Racing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw
80%
Shabab Al Sahel or Racing
77%
Draw or Racing
43%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
33%
Racing wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
84%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
54%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
27%
Racing 1+ goals
62%
Racing 2+ goals
25%
Racing 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
74%
Racing (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Racing away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Racing defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Racing attack 0.79 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more
57%
level
23%
Racing scores more
20%

Shabab Al Sahel at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al Sahel 3–1 Racing

Shabab Al Sahel beat Racing 3-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Al Safa SC Stadium in Beirut.