Shabab Al Ghazieh 2–1 Tadamon Sour: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ghazieh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tadamon Sour

2/26/2025

Premier League · Round 7Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh33%

×Draw28%

Tadamon Sour39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al GhaziehExpected goals in this matchTadamon Sour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.21

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.10

Tadamon Sour

1.21

Tadamon Sour creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

0.78

creates per match

0.78

1.63

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.78

Tadamon Sour

0.78

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.63

Tadamon Sour

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Tadamon Sour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw

61%

Shabab Al Ghazieh or Tadamon Sour

72%

Draw or Tadamon Sour

67%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

13%

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

67%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

30%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

10%

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals

70%

Tadamon Sour 2+ goals

34%

Tadamon Sour 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

46%

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

33%

level

28%

Tadamon Sour scores more

39%

Tadamon Sour at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff