Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Shabab El Bourj — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
CANC
12:15
Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
12/5/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Sour Stadium (Sour)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh39%
×Draw25%
Shabab El Bourj36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.46
Shabab El Bourj
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.63
Shabab El Bourj
2.13

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par
Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Shabab El Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw
64%
Shabab Al Ghazieh or Shabab El Bourj
75%
Draw or Shabab El Bourj
61%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
19%
Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
77%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
43%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
18%
Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
75%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
40%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
52%
Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
39%
level
25%
Shabab El Bourj scores more
36%

Shabab Al Ghazieh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabab Al Ghazieh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Shabab El Bourj — Match Preview

Shabab Al Ghazieh face Shabab El Bourj on December 5, 2019 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shabab Al Ghazieh host Shabab El Bourj at Sour Stadium (Sour).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.