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Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
3/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 6Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh27%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al Sahel46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.00
Shabab Al Sahel
1.41

Shabab Al Sahel creates 41% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 64 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.63
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw
54%
Shabab Al Ghazieh or Shabab Al Sahel
73%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
73%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
10%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
63%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
26%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
8%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
76%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
41%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
37%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
27%
level
27%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
46%

Shabab Al Sahel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al Ghazieh 0–0 Shabab Al Sahel

Shabab Al Ghazieh and Shabab Al Sahel drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium in Ansar.