Shabab Al Ghazieh 2–2 Bekaa: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ghazieh

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bekaa

A. Diaw 90+2' (pen)

Ali Koubeissi 72'

Mohammad Assad 55'

Mohammad Moussa 11'

5/19/2025

Premier League · Relegation Round - 7Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh50%

×Draw23%

Bekaa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al GhaziehExpected goals in this matchBekaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.27

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.80

Bekaa

1.27

Shabab Al Ghazieh creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

0.98

creates per match

0.92

1.61

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.98

Bekaa

0.92

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.61

Bekaa

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Bekaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Bekaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw

73%

Shabab Al Ghazieh or Bekaa

77%

Draw or Bekaa

50%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

27%

Bekaa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

83%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

54%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

27%

Bekaa 1+ goals

72%

Bekaa 2+ goals

36%

Bekaa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

65%

Bekaa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Bekaa away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.98 + Bekaa defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bekaa attack 0.92 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

50%

level

23%

Bekaa scores more

27%

Shabab Al Ghazieh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shabab Al Ghazieh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Mohammad Moussa

24'

55'

Mohammad Assad

58'

Jameel Ibraheem← Hussain Kawaar

58'

Mazen Jamal← Mohammad Serdah

62'

Hassan Koteich← Musatafa Baidoon

65'

Hussein Gharib← Hussain Ghanem

72'

Ali Koubeissi

73'

Emad Ghadar← A. Ayinde

83'

Ali Al Outa← M. Wade

90+2'

A. DiawPenalty

Shabab

Bekaa

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Hussain Khalifeh

58'▲Jameel Ibraheem←▼Hussain Kawaar

58'▲Mazen Jamal←▼Mohammad Serdah

62'▲Hassan Koteich←▼Musatafa Baidoon

73'▲Emad Ghadar←▼A. Ayinde

Shabab Al Ghazieh substitutes

IbraheemJamalKoteichGhadar

Manager: Derar Al Radawi

65'▲Hussein Gharib←▼Hussain Ghanem

83'▲Ali Al Outa←▼M. Wade

Bekaa substitutes

GharibOuta